The results of the federal election in Germany which took place on Sunday are out now. The elections which saw a record turn-out of 83.5 percent, the highest since the country reunified in 1990, have handed a crushing defeat to the governing Social Democrats (SPD) who were a part of the ‘traffic light coalition’ (red, yellow and green colours of the SPD, FDP and the Greens respectively) consisting of the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens before it broke down in late 2024 which necessitated an early election. The conservatives from the CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Party and its Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union) are set to return to power (albeit not on its own) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has nearly doubled its tally.

How Federal Elections in Germany take place?

After a 2023 electoral reform law, the number of seats in the lower house of the German parliament, the Bundestag have been capped at 630 with the overhang and leveling seats removed. Voters in the elections cast two votes, first vote is for a candidate in a local constituency and the second vote is cast for a political party. The latter ultimately decides how many seats a party will get in each state by adjusting the second vote proportion. But there is an important caveat here. Only those parties which receive either five percent of the second vote or win three constituency seats as per the first vote, can enter the Bundestag.

How did the parties fare in the elections?

As mentioned above, the CDU/CSU (also known as the Union) is set to return to power. Its total stands at 208 seats with 28.6 percent vote. The Social Democrats have suffered heavy losses and have been reduced to just 120 seats, taking a hit of 86 seats with 16.4 percent vote. As already highlighted, the AfD has nearly doubled its tally with its total rising from 83 to 152, thus becoming the second largest party in the Bundestag with 20.8 percent vote. The Greens have been reduced to 85 seats from their previous total of 118 with 11.6 percent but the FDP has been unable to open its account after winning 91 seats in the 2021 federal elections. Die Linke (The Left) has also made gains and its total stands at 64 seats with 8.8 percent vote. The performance of the AfD has cemented itself as the most popular party in all the five states of the eastern Germany. It has gained more than 30 percent of the second vote in each of the five states, surging far ahead of both the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

Who will form the Government?

While Friedrich Merz of the CDU/CSU looks set to be the new Chancellor of Germany, to do so, he must form a coalition which has 316 or more seats in the Bundestag. On paper, if the CDU/CSU and the AfD come together, it would result in a coalition of 360 seats but Germany has a long-standing political custom of mainstream parties not entering in a government with the far-right or the far-left parties. Merz has ruled out governing in a coalition with the AfD. Excluding the AfD, the seat totals have thrown have fairly straightforward equations for government formation. A ‘grand coalition’ of the CDU/CSU and the SPD is on the cards as such as coalition would have 328 seats in the Bundestag. There is historical precedent for a grand coalition as well. The first grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD was formed in 1966 and lasted till 1969 with Kurt Georg Kiesinger of the CDU becoming the Chancellor. Further grand coalitions were formed after the 2005, 2013 and 2017 federal elections, with Angela Merkel of the CDU at the helm each time.

The other likely scenario is the formation of a coalition of the CDU/CSU, SPD and the Greens where the seat total would be 413 seats. It would result in a so-called Kenya Coalition as the colours of these three parties (black, red and green for CDU/CSU, SPD and the Greens respectively) would represent the flag of Kenya.

The first sitting of the newly-elected Bundestag must take place within 30 days of the federal election. But for now, all eyes are on how quickly Merz and the CDU/CSU can hammer out a coalition agreement with prospective partners. For Merz, work starts now.